Alberta Premier Danielle Smith now says she will vote for Alberta to remain in Canada.

But her government has also helped keep alive the referendum pathway separatists can use.

Smith posted that the last decade under the Trudeau-NDP was difficult for Alberta, but argued that the tide is turning. She pointed to changes in federal policy, renewed investment, and Alberta’s economic strength, saying that on October 19 she will vote for Alberta to remain in Canada.

The shift comes after Prime Minister Mark Carney moved to address some of Alberta’s central grievances. AP reported that Carney has backed efforts to improve market access for Alberta’s resources, including advancing a potential oil pipeline to the Pacific.

Reuters reported that Carney has warned Alberta’s non-binding separation vote could become a “dangerous bluff,” comparing the risk to Brexit. The vote has no direct legal force, but it could create political momentum toward a future binding referendum. Reuters also reported polling showing that 60% of Albertans favor staying in Canada, while 67% would reject separation in a binding vote.

That is the contradiction.

Smith may not want separation. But she has helped create a political instrument for separatists.

ONEST Take:
Carney gave Alberta a negotiating path. Smith gave separatists a political instrument. Those are not the same thing.

Smith may want leverage, not separation. But history is full of leaders who opened referendum doors thinking they could close them later.

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Olga Nesterova
Olga Nesterova is a journalist and founder of ONEST Network, a reader-supported platform covering U.S. and global affairs. A former White House correspondent and UN diplomat, she focuses on international security and geopolitical strategy.

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