Ukraine talks: Russia’s demands grow. A ceasefire remains absent.

Two days of Ukraine-U.S.-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi produced an agreement on a major prisoner exchange. They produced no announced ceasefire. American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner then met Vladimir Putin in Moscow before briefing Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Dublin on November 12.

Bringing prisoners home matters. It does not establish that Russia is preparing to stop attacking Ukraine.

What is Moscow seeking?

Russia is demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from parts of Donbas that its army has failed to capture. It is now also seeking negotiations over Europe’s wider security arrangements.

In Moscow, Putin reiterated opposition to European troops protecting Ukraine after a ceasefire and revived Russia’s pre-invasion demands for NATO to roll back deployments in Central and Eastern Europe, according to the Kremlin’s account.

The logic is clear: Moscow wants territorial concessions and limits on the arrangements that could deter its next attack.

Why the American approach matters

Kushner said he would seek Putin’s “blessing” for European participation in the talks.

That framing gives the aggressor a presumed say over whether Europeans participate in decisions about their own continent. It accommodates Moscow’s claim that European security should be negotiated with Russia on Russia’s terms.

Ukraine’s position is that a ceasefire should precede territorial discussions. Russia continues to demand concessions while the fighting continues. A process that entertains those demands without securing a halt to attacks risks turning Russian military pressure into diplomatic leverage.

The distinction is between discussing peace and making Russia stop the war. So far, the public results show considerably more of the former.

What happened in Ireland?

At the European Political Community summit in Dublin, Ukraine and its partners worked on the resources and representation needed to prevent negotiations becoming an exercise in extracting Ukrainian concessions.

• European participation: Zelenskyy coordinated with national security advisers from Britain, France, Germany and Italy, alongside the European Commission and European Council, before meeting the American envoys. Kyiv wants Europe involved in decisions, rather than briefed afterward.
• Pressure on Russian revenue: Britain sanctioned Slavneft, completing its sanctions coverage of Russia’s ten largest oil producers. The package also targeted Vostok Oil, coal companies and vessels transporting Russian oil and LNG. London backed a full, immediate ceasefire and legally binding security guarantees.
• Support through winter: António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen announced 500 generators from EU reserves, emergency support centers and other equipment. They also set out plans to discuss Ukraine’s 2027 financing on November 26-27, alongside a forthcoming 22nd sanctions package.

This followed Denmark’s approval of a €645 million defense package earlier in the week.

The immediate vulnerability

Zelenskyy told NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that Starshield disruptions were limiting Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russia’s jet-powered attack drones, alongside shortages of anti-ballistic interceptors. He sought help securing PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles.

The operational consequence matters regardless of the explanation for the disruption: Ukraine’s ability to protect itself is being constrained while negotiations intensify.

After meeting Witkoff and Kushner, Zelenskyy identified three outcomes: the planned prisoner release, stronger European participation and preparations for further multilateral meetings. His office announced no ceasefire agreement.

Diplomatic activity is increasing. Russia’s willingness to stop attacking Ukraine has yet to be demonstrated. Dublin’s practical value lies in strengthening Ukraine’s position and raising Moscow’s costs.