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Latest Diplomatic Notes

Walking Out of CFR: We Are Not Meeting the Moment

Immediate reflections after tonight’s Council on Foreign Relations discussion on diplomacy, institutional hollowing, corporate influence, and whether the U.S. foreign policy establishment is keeping pace with the geopolitical moment.

Diplomatic Note: NPT Review Conference

Reflections from the first week of the NPT Review Conference at UN Headquarters. Listen here.

Diplomatic Note: Who could become the next UNSG?

ONEST attended two days of the interactive dialogues with the four candidates for Secretary-General of the United Nations. Here are my notes from Day 2 and Day 1.

More:

Three Signals from Inside the UN This Week
Across Conflicts and Continents, Women Recognize the Same Struggle
Inside CSW70: When Peace Talks Turn Into Working Rooms


Deep Dives

The Final Week of the 2026 NPT Review Conference: Can the Treaty Still Hold?

Inside the final week of the 2026 NPT Review Conference at the UN: rising tensions, stalled disarmament, Iran, deterrence debates, and what diplomats are quietly saying behind closed doors. Get the details.

Why Nuclear Deterrence Is Being Challenged — And Why It Still Isn’t Going Away

Inside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty at the United Nations, calls to replace nuclear deterrence with “common security” are growing. This ONEST+ analysis explains why the idea is gaining traction — and why nuclear powers are unlikely to abandon deterrence anytime soon. Read more.

If Conflict Accelerates the Energy Transition, Who Gains Power Next?

A deep dive into how conflict could accelerate the shift toward alternative energy, which countries are best positioned to benefit, and how close the world really is to a new clean-energy balance of power. Dive in.

The WTO in the Age of Tariff Wars –– Still Relevant, No Longer Decisive

A deep dive into whether the World Trade Organization still matters in 2026: its history, past successes, dispute-settlement crisis, and how it is struggling to respond to Trump’s tariff war and a more fragmented global economy. Read more.

China’s Middle East Balancing Act

Why China cannot afford instability in the Strait of Hormuz: an ONEST Deep Dive on Beijing’s Iran calculus, disputed military-support reports, diplomacy, shipping risks, the May UN Security Council presidency, and what could be at stake in a Trump-Xi summit. Get the details.

The $1.5 Trillion Divorce from Multilateralism

A deep dive into Trump’s expected $1.5T defense budget, the break from multilateralism, NATO strain, Ukraine spillover, and who benefits. Dive in.

NATO AT A CROSSROADS: What Happens If the Alliance Doesn’t Break — But Stops Working?

NATO faces a new kind of risk — not collapse, but paralysis. As U.S. strategy shifts and global conflicts expand, questions are emerging about deterrence, alliance cohesion, and what happens if NATO stops functioning as intended. Read more.

The Iran War and the Layered Opportunism Model: How One Conflict Opens Multiple Fronts

A deep dive into the Iran war through the “Layered Opportunism Model,” examining how one conflict activates broader rivalries between the U.S., China, Russia, and Gulf powers. Learn more.

More:

Who actually controls Ukraine’s war funding?
From the JCPOA to Geneva: Why “Zero Enrichment Forever” Is Not a Negotiation — and Why China Is Watching
What Counts as a War Crime? Definition, Examples, Prosecution and Today’s Cases


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The Final Week of the 2026 NPT Review Conference: Can the Treaty Still Hold?
Delegates participate in the 2026 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) at United Nations Headquarters in New York. | UN Photo/Loey Felipe

The Final Week of the 2026 NPT Review Conference: Can the Treaty Still Hold?

By Olga Nesterova 5 min read