Turkey–Israel Rivalry Intensifies Over Syria and Eastern Mediterranean Energy

Turkish–Israeli relations have shifted from intermittent tension to a sustained strategic rivalry that is likely to shape Middle Eastern and Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics in the coming decade.

The competition centers on two main fault lines: Syria and offshore energy resources.

In Syria, Turkey’s expanding military and political presence alarms Israel, which fears Ankara’s long-term entrenchment could limit Israeli freedom of action and alter the regional security balance. This has turned Syria into a key arena of indirect confrontation.

In the Eastern Mediterranean, major natural gas discoveries have heightened rivalry. Israel, aligned with Greece and Cyprus, aims to export gas to Europe and embed itself in Europe’s energy security framework. Turkey rejects energy arrangements that exclude it and seeks to establish itself as a central energy hub, transforming energy from a potential cooperation area into a strategic contest.

Politically, the rivalry is marked by sharp rhetoric between leaders, reflecting deeper anxieties over regional influence and maritime rights.

Strategically, it is reshaping alliances: Israel is strengthening ties with Greece and Cyprus, while Turkey is expanding its influence through Syria, the Gulf, and North Africa.

Together, these dynamics signal a long-term competition rather than a temporary diplomatic dispute.