Russia Claims U.S. Admits NATO’s Role in Ukraine War — But Talks Stall as Intelligence Warnings Persist

Russian Deputy FM Ryabkov | Photo: EPA/ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO / POOL

Russia is signaling "cautious optimism" about Washington’s rhetoric on Ukraine, even as negotiations remain frozen and Western intelligence agencies warn that Moscow’s strategic ambitions extend far beyond the current war.

Russia’s message: acknowledgment is not enough

Speaking this week, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said it was “fundamentally important” that the United States had agreed—“at the highest level”—that one of the root causes of the conflict was NATO’s expansion toward Russia’s borders.

But Ryabkov made clear that Moscow views words as "insufficient".

“The ultimate test of truth is practice,” he said, adding that Russia expects Washington’s perceived policy adjustments to be translated into “concrete actions” and framed around “equal-footing engagement” that takes Russia’s “fundamental interests,” particularly in security, into account.

The statement echoes long-standing Kremlin messaging, which seeks to deflect responsibility for Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by attributing it to Western security policies, while negotiations continue without meaningful Russian signals of compromise or readiness to pursue a durable peace.

Reality check: negotiations are deadlocked

Despite Ryabkov’s framing, negotiations between the U.S. and Russia on Ukraine remain at a deadlock, with territorial control and security guarantees unresolved. There has been no public indication of movement on core issues such as Ukraine’s borders, sovereignty, or long-term security architecture.

The gap between rhetoric and reality highlights a deeper impasse: Western governments view Russia’s demands as incompatible with Ukraine’s sovereignty, while Moscow frames that position as proof of Western intransigence, despite its own role in launching and sustaining the conflict.

U.S. intelligence paints a darker picture

At the same time, U.S. intelligence agencies are delivering a far more alarming assessment of Russia’s intentions. According to Reuters, citing six sources familiar with classified intelligence, analysts believe Vladimir Putin remains committed to fully conquering Ukraine and ultimately reasserting control over parts of Europe once under Soviet domination.

That assessment directly contradicts the Kremlin’s portrayal of the war as a defensive response to NATO pressure—and casts doubt on Moscow’s claims of seeking de-escalation through “equal” dialogue.

Putin’s public reassurance—and its limits

The intelligence warnings come amid recent remarks by Putin himself. Responding to a question from Steve Rosenberg of the BBC, Putin claimed that there would be “no wars after Ukraine” if Russia were treated with “respect.”

The comment appears designed to reassure Western audiences while reinforcing a core Kremlin narrative: that conflict is the result of Russia being ignored or humiliated, rather than of its own actions. Western officials, however, have long viewed such assurances with skepticism, particularly given Russia’s track record in Georgia, Ukraine, and beyond.

Intelligence channels quietly reopen

Adding another layer of complexity, Russia’s intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin, head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, has recently resumed contacts with European intelligence counterparts.

According to Germany’s public broadcaster WDR, Naryshkin spoke by phone last week with the head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service. Shortly before that, he confirmed a conversation with the head of British foreign intelligence.

The substance of those discussions remains unknown. But their timing is notable: they suggest that intelligence backchannels are active even as formal diplomacy stalls, a classic sign of crisis management rather than rapprochement.

A familiar Kremlin strategy

Taken together, the developments point to a familiar Russian approach:

• Publicly emphasize NATO and Western responsibility

• Privately maintain intelligence contacts to manage risk and gather leverage

• Demand structural concessions while holding territory by force

For Washington and its allies, the challenge is distinguishing between tactical engagement and strategic deception. Intelligence assessments suggesting continued expansionist aims make it difficult to accept Moscow’s claims of defensive intent at face value.

Bottom line

Russia is pressing the narrative that the U.S. has acknowledged NATO’s role in triggering the war—but offers no sign it is prepared to compromise on Ukraine’s sovereignty. With negotiations stalled, intelligence warnings mounting, and covert channels quietly reopening, the gap between what Moscow says and what Western intelligence believes it plans to do remains as wide as ever.

In that gap lies the core risk: dialogue without trust, and engagement shadowed by the possibility that the war in Ukraine is not an endpoint—but a stage.