In Berlin, Peace Negotiations Stall Over Security Guarantees, Territorial Demands, and Russia’s Unyielding Position

Berlin Meeting "Family Photo"

The latest round of U.S.–Ukraine peace negotiations in Berlin on Dec. 14–15 revealed a stark truth that officials on all sides avoided saying out loud: there is no alignment — not between Kyiv and Washington, not between Kyiv and Moscow, and certainly not between Moscow and Europe. What was presented as “constructive” quickly fractured under scrutiny, exposing deeply divergent positions and raising critical questions about how realistic a ceasefire or “day-one peace deal” truly is.

Ukraine Pushes Back on Russian Disinformation — and on U.S. Proposals

Speaking to press via WhatsApp, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy directly addressed Russian claims that its forces control Kupyansk, calling the statements “false” and “propaganda designed for the Western audience.” His recent trip to the city, he said, proved unequivocally that Ukraine retains control.

But Zelenskyy also pushed back on something far more significant: U.S. suggestions that Ukraine withdraw from parts of Donetsk or accept buffer zones while Russia stays put.

His position was unambiguous: “Why should Ukraine withdraw, but not Russia?”

That question continues to hang over the negotiation table, unresolved — and perhaps unresolvable. Kyiv has repeatedly emphasized that Russia’s demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas are not concessions but preconditions for capitulation.

Zelenskyy’s current proposal is essentially a status-quo ceasefire: both sides hold where they currently stand — a line he described as “stand where we stand.”

This, he argues, is the only baseline from which a meaningful diplomatic process could begin.

NATO Membership Off the Table — Security Guarantees Now the Core Issue

Another major friction point: Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine is being pushed toward “Article-5-like” U.S. security guarantees in lieu of NATO membership — a concession reportedly favored by Washington and allegedly viewed by Moscow as "acceptable".

This aligns with comments from German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, who hinted that talks now revolve around Ukraine giving up long-held aspirations to join the Alliance. He described the negotiations as the “most serious” since the war began — while also acknowledging that Russia seems to have pre-approved parts of the American position.

Wadephul went further, stating the U.S. delegation had “obviously coordinated its position with Moscow beforehand.”That assessment is politically explosive — and underscores a fear in Kyiv that Washington may be moving toward a geopolitical settlement with Russia, not for Ukraine.

Kushner and Witkoff Lead U.S. Delegation — With Moscow Watching Closely

The American delegation, led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, is handling both the security and economic tracks. Kushner is reportedly overseeing Ukraine’s recovery framework and long-term guarantees — a role that raises eyebrows given his lack of position, and diplomatic or regional-security experience.

The U.S. side described the talks as “really, really positive,” claiming consensus on numerous points within a 20-point peace plan. They also suggested Russia might accept “paragraph 5” — the security guarantees section.

But Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov preemptively dismissed any forthcoming Western proposals, stating Russia expects “very strong objections” and is unwilling to accept changes to territorial arrangements.

In other words: Russia rejected the plan before it even arrived.

This reinforces a pattern: Moscow’s strategy is not to negotiate peace, but to dictate terms.

Ukraine’s Mixed Messaging Reflects Ongoing Negotiation Volatility

Head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov initially praised the U.S. talks as “constructive and productive,” saying that real progress had been achieved, expecting a deal "by end of day".

Hours later, his spokesperson walked the statement back, clarifying: “No agreement is expected today.”

Meanwhile, CGTN reported that the U.S. is pressing Ukraine to hand over Donbas as part of the deal. Washington denies this, but the rumor itself speaks to growing concerns in Kyiv that U.S. negotiators may be over-confident in their ability to broker a settlement palatable to Moscow.

Europe Steps In — With Firmer Language Than Washington

On Monday, Zelenskyy met with top German officials, including Bundestag President Julia Klöckner and Chancellor Friedrich Merz, before joining leaders from across Europe — including Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, the U.K. — along with NATO and EU representatives.

Germany used the occasion to reaffirm commitment to Ukraine, highlighting €11.5 billion in military aid already provided.

Foreign Minister Wadephul delivered the sharpest message:

• Europe will not allow itself to be divided.

• Russia should make “no mistake” about Western resolve.

• Any negotiation must leave Ukraine in a strong defensive position.

Chancellor Merz called for a Christmas ceasefire on December 25, framing it as a potential “first step toward peace.” Moscow is unlikely to agree.

Russia Shows Zero Interest in Peace — and Is Expanding Global Military Ties

While Washington continues to promote fast-track negotiations, Russia is preparing for a longer, broader confrontation.

Recently:

• Putin signed a law enabling transfer of troops, aircraft, and ships between Russia and India.

• Moscow deepened security cooperation with North Korea.

• Sino-Russian military alignment continues to grow.

These are not the actions of a state preparing to compromise.They are the actions of a state preparing for extended conflict.

MI6 reinforced this interpretation. Blaise Metreweli, head of the U.K. intelligence service, stated:

“Putin’s policy is aggressive and expansionist… He is dragging out negotiations and shifting the cost of war onto his own population.”

Simply put: Russia does not want peace. It wants victory — or at least territorial and political domination.

Critical Takeaway: Negotiations Are Happening — But Peace Is Not

Despite optimistic statements from U.S. officials, the core dynamics remain unchanged:

1. Ukraine cannot accept territorial concessions without risking political collapse.

2. The U.S. is pushing for compromises that Kyiv fears reward Russian aggression.

3. Europe is firmly supportive but divided on tactics.

4. Russia rejects everything — even hypothetical proposals — while expanding foreign military alliances.

The Berlin talks may be “serious,” but seriousness does not equal viability. A peace deal, to be real, must be negotiated by both sides. Yet Moscow continues to pre-emptively reject any proposals, while advancing military partnerships that signal long-term strategic ambition.

For now, the only honest conclusion is this:

Peace is being negotiated on paper — not in reality.

The next round of talks is expected to take place in the United States this weekend, where “working groups and military people will be looking at maps.” But maps, like peace plans, mean little without political will — and at present, only one side at the table is showing any.