Lavrov Makes It Explicit: Russia Will Not End the War Unless Ukraine Capitulates
- Olga Nesterova
- 1 hour ago
- 3 min read
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has once again made Moscow’s position unmistakably clear: Russia will not end its war against Ukraine unless Kyiv accepts full capitulation on Russia’s terms.
In a detailed statement outlining what the Kremlin calls its “essential conditions” for any settlement, Lavrov reiterated demands that go far beyond territorial concessions. They amount to a blueprint for Ukrainian political, military, and cultural surrender — and confirm what analysts have long warned: Russia has no interest in negotiating peace.
Lavrov’s Conditions: Capitulation Disguised as Negotiation
Lavrov listed what he described as Russia’s “absolutely essential conditions,” including:
Demilitarization of Ukraine
A guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO
Removal of all “threats” to Russia
“Protection” of Russians, Russian-speaking people, and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church
And the Kremlin’s ideological demand: “denazification”
Lavrov even invoked the Nuremberg Trials to justify Moscow’s narrative:
“This is not something we have invented… Germany went through a process of denazification and repentance. Unfortunately, today — perhaps even starting with Germany itself — we feel that this repentance has come to mean very little.”
This framing is deeply revealing. As analysts have long noted, Russia never underwent its own Nuremberg — no national reckoning for Soviet-era crimes, no public accounting for the catastrophes of Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, or Ukraine. The Kremlin now weaponizes the language of accountability while rejecting it for itself.
Lavrov’s statement confirms what Ukraine and its allies have argued since 2022: Russia is not negotiating. Russia is dictating terms of surrender.
Trump’s Oval Office Remark: No World War Risk — and No Interest in Negotiating
During Oval Office remarks yesterday, President Trump claimed that the situation in Ukraine “no longer threatens” a world war:
“If I were president, this war would never have happened. And if I were not president, this war could have led to World War III. This will not happen.”
He then declared that “the end of the war is ahead of him,” suggesting he believes a conclusion is forthcoming — even as Russia publicly demands total Ukrainian capitulation.
The President’s comments underscore what diplomats and European officials increasingly observe: the U.S. administration appears disinterested in further negotiations, even as Russia hardens its maximalist conditions.
Trump also used the appearance to announce a major economic shift — claiming he will lift 50% tariffs on India, tariffs that were originally imposed in part to curb India’s purchase of Russian oil.
But the factual picture is more complicated.
India Has Not Stopped Buying Russian Oil
Despite Trump’s claim that India “stopped purchasing oil from Russia,” available data do not support this.
Ship-tracking data show that in October 2025, India’s imports of Russian crude actually increased, rising to 1.48 million barrels per day, up from 1.44 million bpd in September. Russia currently provides more than one-third of India’s crude supply.
What has changed is India’s future posture:
Indian refiners are preparing to reduce upcoming purchases
Several major refiners have announced they will align with Western sanctions
Many refiners have already skipped or cut new Russian orders for December delivery
However, India has not ceased buying Russian oil. The reductions are prospective, driven by U.S. sanctions and tariff pressure — not by any claim that India has fully ended Russian imports.
This makes the administration’s assertion inaccurate at best, misleading at worst.
A Larger Pattern: Russia Escalates Because It Faces No Consequences
Lavrov’s statement — combined with Trump’s dismissal of world war risks and his inaccurate assertion about India — highlights a broader dynamic:
Russia sees no real pushback from the United States, is shielded diplomatically and economically by China, and is backed militarily or financially by partners including Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela.
In this environment, the Kremlin has every incentive to expand the conflict, not end it. Lavrov’s ultimatum is not diplomacy — it is a declaration that Russia’s war aims remain maximalist and uncompromising.
What This Means for the War
Three realities emerge clearly:
Russia is not negotiating. Its terms demand total Ukrainian surrender.
The United States is stepping back.Trump’s comments suggest no appetite for pressure on Moscow — or for serious mediation.
Ukraine faces a long, grinding war with a Russia emboldened by weak Western consensus and growing authoritarian support.
Far from a peace roadmap, Lavrov’s statement signals an extended conflict — one Moscow believes it can outlast.
