Putin's Negotiation Demands on Ukraine: A Push for Neutrality and Territorial Control

Vladimir Putin plans to demand that Ukraine drastically reduces its military ties with NATO and abandons its ambitions to join the alliance during upcoming negotiations with Donald Trump, according to Bloomberg sources.
Putin, believing he holds the upper hand on the battlefield, seeks to transform Ukraine into a neutral state with limited military capacity. He insists that NATO nations can supply Ukraine with weapons, but these should not be used against Russia or to reclaim lost territories. Additionally, Russia aims to retain control over at least 20% of Ukrainian territory, with potential for territorial exchanges as Russia tries to regain its own territory in the Kursk region post Ukraine’s incursion.
Putin's position has hardened over time, shifting from a willingness to allow Ukraine to join NATO in the future to demanding its neutrality. Current talks between Russia and Ukraine in Qatar are focused on securing nuclear power plant safety as the fight continues. Putin also references the "Istanbul agreements" from March 2022, that largely meant capitulation of Ukrainian territories, as the foundation for peace negotiations.
In a recent opinion piece published in The New York Times, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Russia has suffered over 700,000 casualties since the war began. They argued that Putin now faces a difficult dilemma: continue with high casualties for minimal gains, risk a mobilization that could destabilize Russia domestically, or negotiate seriously with Ukraine to end the war. They further emphasized that cutting aid or pushing for a premature ceasefire would only enable Putin to "rest, refit, and eventually re-attack," describing such an outcome as "peace through surrender, which would be no peace at all."
In addition, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed the Biden administration’s stance on the negotiations earlier this week in Helsinki: “Ukraine is not in a strong enough position for peace talks with Russia. At this moment, clearly Ukraine is not there, because they cannot at this moment negotiate from a position of strength,” Rutte told EU lawmakers. “We have to do more to ensure that, by changing the trajectory of the conflict, they can reach that position of strength.”
Currently, five months after Ukraine launched its ground incursion into Russia, the two forces are locked in some of the most brutal clashes of the war, fighting fiercely for land and strategic advantage. The intensity mirrors the devastating sieges of eastern Ukraine, particularly in towns like Bakhmut and Avdiivka, which have become symbols of mass casualties and destruction for both sides.
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