Newsroom Briefing | July 30th, 2025

Olga Nesterova
18 hours ago
10 min read

HIGHLIGHTS

Trump’s Tariff Spiral: From Ceasefire Deadlines to Economic Fallout

Trump in Scotland

While meeting with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland, Donald Trump announced he may impose secondary tariffs on countries buying from Russia—possibly sooner than the 50-day window he gave Vladimir Putin to “seek a ceasefire.”

Flying back to the U.S. aboard Air Force One, Trump spoke to reporters and shortened the timeline to just 10 days, setting a new deadline of August 8th, after which he threatened to impose tariffs.

Russia’s major buyers include China, India, and EU members like the Netherlands and Italy.

China’s Response: “We’ll Pay Tariffs If We Must”

China was the first to react, rejecting U.S. demands to halt Russian oil purchases. Chinese officials stated that energy policy will be guided by domestic priorities, and they are prepared to pay tariffs of up to 100% if needed.

In response, the U.S. warned of a new bill in Congress proposing up to 500% tariffs on Russian oil, which would also impact China. However, Speaker Johnson has dismissed the House until September, under Trump’s direction, making such threats legally toothless—for now.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has criticized China’s $15+ billion in dual-use exports to Russia.

Despite this tension, a new 90-day trade truce between the U.S. and China was announced yesterday. Whether Trump will use that window to move forward with secondary sanctions remains uncertain.

Remember what the “C” in BRICS stands for?

Trump Targets India: A 25% Tariff, Plus “Penalty”

Then came a tweet aimed at India:

“Remember, while India is our friend, we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their Tariffs are far too high... they have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia's largest buyer of ENERGY... INDIA WILL THEREFORE BE PAYING A TARIFF OF 25%, PLUS A PENALTY FOR THE ABOVE, STARTING ON AUGUST FIRST. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER. MAGA!”

And what’s the “I” in BRICS again?

Who Pays? Spoiler: It’s Not Russia

The added taxes on products from countries like China and India will ultimately hit American consumers. It’s a bizarre setup: Russia wages war, their trade continues—and the U.S. consumer foots the bill.

U.S. companies are too reliant on imports from these countries to sever ties overnight. And let’s be honest, we’re not going to start making Dutch cheese in Milwaukee anytime soon.

Please make it make sense.

Today’s Key Announcements

Brazil Tariff Hike: 50% on All Imports

The White House announced a 50% tariff (up from 10%) on goods from Brazil, citing threats to U.S. interests, human rights abuses, and coercion of U.S. companies. The tariff goes into effect 7 days from now.

Earlier today, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva responded:

"We are not afraid of Trump."

De Minimis Loophole Ends August 29

The administration is ending duty-free de minimis treatment for all countries starting August 29, 2025. This will especially impact Amazon, Temu, SHEIN, and other (small) companies that benefit from the loophole.

New Copper Tariff: 50% Across the Board

A newly signed proclamation introduces a 50% tariff on semi-finished and intensive copper derivatives starting August 1, 2025. No specific countries were named—implying it may apply to all imports.

Procter & Gamble Will Raise Prices

Procter & Gamble announced it will increase prices on 25% of its U.S. products beginning in August to offset new tariff-related costs. The company expects to incur $1 billion in pre-tax expenses during FY2026 due to Trump’s tariff policies.

Still No Trade Deals—Just Tariffs

So far, there are no signed trade agreements. Just vague ideas and confirmed tariffs set to begin August 1 on products from Japan, the EU, the UK, Brazil, Thailand, and Indonesia.

China gets a temporary 90-day tariff pause after another round of talks in Stockholm over the weekend.

Taiwan Transit Blocked Amid Trade Talks

Just before U.S.–China talks began in Stockholm, the Trump administration debated whether to allow Taiwan’s President Lai to transit through the U.S.—fearing it might jeopardize a potential meeting with Xi Jinping.

Soon after, Lai’s trip was canceled.

His office released a statement:

“Considering the recovery from the recent southern typhoon, reciprocal tariffs with the United States, and regional situations, the President has no plans for overseas visits in the near future.”

IMF Warning: Tariffs Will Fuel Inflation

The IMF’s top economist warned the global economy will “continue hurting” due to rising tariffs.
He said U.S. consumers would feel the impact in the second half of the year, with inflation likely to exceed the Fed’s target.
While the IMF raised its 2025 growth forecast slightly from 2.8% to 3%, that’s still down from 3.3% in 2024—and well below the pre-COVID average of 3.7%.

UK Warns Israel: Recognize Palestine or Else

British PM Keir Starmer announced that the UK will recognize a Palestinian state in September unless Israel takes substantive action to end the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and meet other conditions.

This vague statement is exactly what we hate about politics.

Trump: “I Ended Six Wars”

And finally, Trump told reporters:

“I ended six wars. I’m averaging a war per month. Including wars that lasted 500 years.”

No, this isn't true.

NATIONAL NEWS: THE ROUNDUP

In one of the most contentious policy votes, Federal Reserve officials voted to keep interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, despite persistent pressure from President Trump to cut rates.

Democratic former Vice President Kamala Harris announced Wednesday she will not run for governor of California, ending speculation that the former presidential candidate would seek the high-profile role.

The U.S. Justice Department issued a memo Wednesday instructing recipients of federal funding to ban diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs—a move aligned with President Trump’s ongoing effort to dismantle DEI initiatives since taking office in January.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Chuck Grassley said Wednesday he was “offended” and “disappointed” by President Trump’s social media attacks, which targeted him for upholding the Senate’s “blue slip” tradition—allowing Democratic senators to effectively veto judicial and prosecutorial nominees in their home states.

The U.S. Senate voted 51–47 along party lines Tuesday night to confirm Trump nominee Susan Monarez as director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, tasking her with leading the federal response to public health threats.

President Trump said Wednesday his reciprocal tariff deadline will not be extended beyond this Friday:

“The August first deadline is the August first deadline — it stands strong, and will not be extended. A big day for America!!!” he wrote in all caps on his social media platform.

FACTCHECK: China has a 90-day pause. No other deals are signed. Do executive orders and copy-pasted letters with random capitalization sent to countries carry legal weight?

A cryptocurrency working group created by President Trump on Wednesday released the administration’s positions on key crypto legislation and urged the SEC to draft new rules specifically for digital assets.

The Senate also confirmed Emil Bove, Trump’s former personal lawyer, as a federal judge—placing a loyalist who oversaw a turbulent period at the Justice Department on a key appeals court.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is reportedly planning a major overhaul of the federal advisory panel that determines which preventive services insurers must cover, according to STAT News, citing a source familiar with the discussions.

Two Justice Department antitrust officials were fired Tuesday for insubordination, according to a source familiar with the decision. The firings follow growing controversy over the DOJ’s settlement approving Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s $14 billion acquisition of Juniper Networks.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett referenced Nvidia’s H20 AI chip exports to China, saying Trump’s team allowed shipments to proceed in an attempt to prevent China from dominating the global chip race.

A Republican-led congressional committee on Tuesday rejected a request for immunity from a longtime associate of the late Jeffrey Epstein, who had offered to testify under certain conditions—fueling further political fallout surrounding President Trump.

Finally, President Trump’s approval rating dropped one point to 40%, the lowest of his second term, amid ongoing public concern over his handling of the economy and immigration, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

GLOBAL NEWS

🌏 Russia & Pacific Region

Massive Quake Sparks Tsunami Alerts

An 8.8 magnitude earthquake off Russia’s coast—one of the strongest ever recorded—triggered tsunami warnings across the Pacific, including in Japan, Hawaii, and as far as Central and South America. Around two million people were affected by evacuation orders.

🇺🇸 United States

Trump Threatens to Skip G20

President Trump said he may skip the upcoming G20 Summit in South Africa this November, citing disapproval of South Africa’s policies.

New Sanctions on Brazil and Iran

The U.S. sanctioned a Brazilian Supreme Court justice overseeing former President Bolsonaro’s trial, citing suppression of free speech.
Treasury imposed sanctions on over 115 Iran-linked individuals, entities, and vessels—part of the administration’s escalation after June’s strikes on Tehran’s nuclear sites.

Defense Pact Review with UK & Australia

A Pentagon official confirmed a review of the U.S.–UK–Australia defense pact will conclude this fall.

Tariffs & Global Mediation

President Trump threatened tariffs on Cambodia and Thailand but reversed course after both sides agreed to a ceasefire. The U.S., China, and Myanmar helped mediate.

Drug Policy Shifts

British drugmaker GSK confirmed talks with the Trump administration on reducing U.S. drug prices.

🇮🇳 India

India Becomes Top U.S. Smartphone Supplier

India surpassed China as the U.S.'s largest smartphone supplier in Q2 2025, followed by Vietnam. Apple’s recent manufacturing shift played a major role.

Joint Space Mission with U.S.

India and NASA launched their first joint satellite project today—a radar satellite that will map Earth’s land and ice. The collaboration was over a decade in the making.

Security Operation in Pakistan

India said its forces killed three Pakistanis allegedly involved in an April attack on tourists in Kashmir. Pakistan has denied involvement and did not comment on the recent operation.

🇨🇳 China

Childcare Subsidy Introduced

China launched a new policy offering ca. $500 annually per child under 3 to combat its declining birthrate. The subsidy applies retroactively to children born after 2022.

On Diplomacy & Denuclearization

Kim Yo Jong praised South Korea’s outreach as "sincere" but dismissed talks unless Washington drops demands for denuclearization. She said relations with Trump were “not bad.”

🇦🇺 Australia

Green Energy Expansion Announced

Australia will increase its investment in large-scale solar, wind, and storage projects by 25%—an additional 8 gigawatts—by 2030, citing falling battery prices and climate targets.

🇵🇭 Philippines & Middle East

Houthi Rebels Hold Filipino Hostages

Nine Filipino sailors remain in Houthi custody after their Greek-operated vessel was sunk. A video showing some of the men was released Monday. The Houthis also fired a ballistic missile at Israel, which was intercepted.

🇨🇦 Canada & 🇸🇬 Singapore

Canada–Singapore Trade Talks

PM Carney and PM Wong discussed boosting trade in agri-food and nuclear energy. Both welcomed progress toward a Canada–ASEAN trade deal and plan to meet again in October.

🇨🇴 Colombia

Ex-President Uribe Convicted

Álvaro Uribe was found guilty of bribing a witness in a case tied to paramilitary funding. He becomes Colombia’s first ex-president criminally convicted. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticized the ruling, calling it a “dangerous precedent” by radical judges.

🇰🇭 Cambodia & 🇹🇭 Thailand

Border Clashes and Fragile Truce

Following the deadliest violence in over a decade, military leaders from both sides met to reaffirm a ceasefire and halt civilian targeting. Tensions rose after a leaked call between Cambodia’s Hun Sen and Thailand’s ex-leader’s daughter led to her suspension.

Talks will resume August 4.
Both nations face a potential 36% U.S. tariff starting August 1 if violence resumes.
Over 43 people were killed, and more than 300,000 displaced before the ceasefire.

🇸🇸 South Sudan

Willingness to Accept U.S. Deportees

South Sudan has expressed willingness to accept more deported migrants and urged the U.S. to lift sanctions on one of its top officials, per diplomatic sources.

Follow @onestpress on Bluesky (or X) for live updates.

LET'S TALK, LIVE

Thank you for all the questions you’ve submitted—I'll be answering them this Thursday at 8pm ET in our weekly livestream.

Originally, I planned for two streams a week, but given everything happening behind the scenes (and in the world), we’re sticking with Thursdays for now—focused, thoughtful, and worth your time.

If you haven’t sent a question yet (or want to add more), just drop it below. I’ll do my best to cover everything—calmly and clearly.

See you Thursday.

TODAY IN HISTORY

🏛️ Politics & Global Affairs

1619 – The first representative assembly in America convened in Jamestown, Virginia. The Virginia House of Burgesses was the first elected legislative assembly in the New World.
1864 – U.S. Civil War: The Battle of the Crater occurred during the Siege of Petersburg in Virginia. A Union mine explosion under Confederate lines failed to turn into victory due to poor planning and execution.
1965 – Medicare and Medicaid were signed into law by U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson, with former President Harry S. Truman receiving the first Medicare card.
2006 – The world’s longest running civil war officially ended in Sri Lanka as the government declared defeat of the LTTE in eastern regions. (The broader conflict continued until 2009.)

🚀 Science & Technology

1935 – The first Penguin paperback books were published in England, revolutionizing reading by making quality literature affordable and portable.
2003 – The last old-style Volkswagen Beetle rolled off the production line in Puebla, Mexico, ending a run that began in 1938 under the Nazi regime.

⚖️ Civil Rights & Culture

1945 – The USS Indianapolis was sunk by a Japanese submarine just days after delivering components for the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Over 800 sailors died—many from shark attacks and dehydration.
1980 – Israel’s Knesset passed the “Jerusalem Law,” declaring Jerusalem the “complete and united” capital of Israel—sparking international controversy.

🎭 Entertainment & Media

1947 – Arnold Schwarzenegger was born in Thal, Austria. He became a bodybuilding icon, Hollywood star, and Governor of California.
2003 – “The Station Nightclub Fire” survivors reached a $10M settlement with a beer company that had sponsored the ill-fated show in Rhode Island (the fire had occurred earlier that year, killing 100).

COMING UP TOMORROW

Canada–U.S. Talks: Prime Minister Carney of Canada will chair a virtual Cabinet meeting focused on negotiations with the United States and the evolving situation in the Middle East.
ISS Launch: A mission to the International Space Station is scheduled to launch from Florida, carrying a multinational crew from Japan, Russia, and the United States.
Diplomacy in D.C.: South Korea’s Foreign Minister Cho Hyun will meet with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, D.C. to discuss regional and bilateral matters.
Myanmar Deadline: The state of emergency in Myanmar is set to expire unless renewed, potentially affecting the country’s already volatile political landscape.