Empty Threats and Delayed Defenses: U.S. Posturing on Russia Undermines Ukraine Aid

Secretary of the Treasury Bessent made headlines this week after promoting the idea of imposing 100% tariffs on any buyers of Russian goods, urging EU member states to follow suit.

But let’s examine the “example” he’s pointing to. The EU just passed its 18th sanctions package against Russia, while the U.S. quietly lifted restrictions that had previously limited Russia’s access to the global banking system—essentially reopening the doors for Russia to participate in international trade.

At the same time, U.S. officials are only speaking in hypotheticals about “potential” tariffs on Russian buyers—some of whom include close trading partners like EU countries and China. The timing is particularly ironic. Amid the U.S.-led trade war, many countries, including EU members, have pivoted to China to expand trade. So, tariffing your own partners rings more symbolic than strategic.

Now, will the U.S. actually impose those tariffs? That remains unclear. Washington gave Putin a 50-day window to negotiate—a window he has ignored. Today, Ukraine and Russia are meeting again in Turkey for talks, but expectations are low. Russia has warned not to expect any breakthroughs, and the agenda is limited mostly to prisoner exchanges.

And if we judge Moscow by its actions—as we should—there’s no indication of a willingness to agree to a ceasefire or stop the war. Quite the opposite. As I’ve covered in previous briefings, Russia continues to amass troops in eastern Ukraine and enjoys “unlimited” support from both China and North Korea—though what Russia provides in return is a separate question.

What could be meaningful is the bipartisan sanctions bill currently awaiting a vote. I previously noted that the window for that vote was around July 21—coincidentally, the same time Speaker Johnson shut down the House until September.

Read between the lines: the sanctions bill won’t get a vote in the near future.

Meanwhile, the 50-day clock expires on September 2. Russia could begin a new offensive by then.

Will Ukraine be ready? Not likely.

Patriot air defense systems promised by Trump won’t arrive until spring 2026, according to RBC-Ukraine, citing Spiegel—meaning at least another 8 months of waiting.

Time will tell, but the outcome of any future offensive—or peace negotiations—will depend not on words or threats, but on actual aid.