BRICS Summit, Rubio's Canceled Asia Trip, and Shifting Dynamics in Global Diplomacy

As the BRICS summit kicks off this weekend in Brazil, experts from the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) are analyzing the current diplomatic landscape and its implications for U.S.-Asia relations, the role of BRICS, and broader geopolitical shifts.

The summit, which brings together Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is unfolding at a time of heightened global tension, with significant developments in both the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East.

Rubio’s Canceled Asia Trip: Strained Alliances and Growing Uncertainty

A key focus for ASPI's Emma Chanlett-Avery, Director for Political-Security Affairs, is Secretary of State Marco Rubio's abrupt cancellation of his planned stops in Tokyo and Seoul.

This move, she notes, is part of a broader series of setbacks for U.S.-Asian relations, which have been experiencing strain due to tariff negotiations, missed diplomatic opportunities, and lack of engagement.

Chanlett-Avery pointed out that the cancellation comes on the heels of several negative developments, such as Japan's pull-out from the 2+2 meetings and the absence of a Lee-Trump meeting on the calendar. Together, these elements signal an unsettling shift in U.S.-Asian alliances.

The scheduled trip was already problematic, with Rubio's visit coinciding closely with the July 9th tariff deadline—an issue at the heart of tensions between the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. Instead of mending fences, the cancellation of the visit risks sending negative signals to U.S. allies in the region, further clouding the future of these critical partnerships.

The BRICS Summit: High Stakes with Limited Leadership

On the global stage, the BRICS summit is also facing its own challenges. The absence of both President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin means that this year’s summit will lack two of its most prominent leaders, creating a leadership vacuum that could impact the outcomes of discussions. Xi's decision not to attend the summit also eliminates the potential for a crucial one-on-one meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Xi. Their last face-to-face meeting during the 2021 BRICS summit in Russia was a landmark in India-China relations, particularly in resolving disputes over the Line of Actual Control. While both nations have engaged in consistent dialogue since then, the absence of a leader-level interaction in Brazil underscores the complex nature of their bilateral relationship.

With both Xi and Putin notably absent, PM Modi is set to emerge as the most prominent world leader present at the summit, making it an important opportunity for India to assert its diplomatic influence. There may also be opportunities for side meetings with counterparts from Indonesia and Iran, providing Modi with a chance to strengthen ties on key regional issues.

Geopolitical Tensions and the Shadow of Global Conflicts

This year’s summit takes place amid a complex geopolitical backdrop. Trade decisions emerging from Washington, particularly regarding tariffs and international trade policies, are casting a long shadow over global economic relations. These decisions will likely be a point of focus during discussions, especially given the potential ripple effects on the BRICS nations’ economies. In addition, the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict and rising tensions between India and Pakistan further complicate the diplomatic landscape.

The potential for the BRICS nations to present a unified front on such divisive issues will be a major test of the group’s ability to reconcile differing national interests.

While the summit’s expanded membership gives it broader global representation, the diversity of perspectives within BRICS could make it difficult to reach a consensus on key issues. The organization’s growing influence, however, offers a chance to forge new cooperation in areas like trade, energy, and security, even if achieving a fully unified agenda proves challenging.